Macro-Economic Model of the Nigerian Economy by Akpan Ekpo, John Ndebbio, Edet Akpakpan and Micheal Nyong

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This study, Macro-Economic Model of the Nigerian Economy, Which has been the result of a Ministerial Advisory Committee of the Federal Ministry of Finance, is an attempt to produce a, preliminary background information material with a view to providing some basis for understanding the Nigerian economy. The text is divided, into three main parts.

Part One discusses the principal sectors of the Nigerian economy which include agriculture, manufacturing and petroleum, among others, as well as aggregate demand, the labour market, the monetary and financial sectors, and, of course, the informal financial sector and the; external sector.

Part Two of the text presents a model of the Nigerian economy, with eighty-eight equations which are either behavioural or identities; while Part Three discusses the results of the estimated equations.

A unique feature of the study is the effort to discuss and test the Nigerian informal financial sector. In addition, the formal financial sector is, also examined.

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Table of Content

General Introduction
Part One: PRINCIPAL SECTORS OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Chapter 1: The Agricultural Sector

      1.0 Introduction
      2.0 The Structure of the Nigerian Agricultural Sector
      3.0 Agricultural Policy Measures
      4.0 Perfonnance of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria
      5.0 Constraints on Agriculture in Nigeria
      6.0 . Relations and Equations

Chapter 2: The Manufacturing and Petroleum Sectors
A. The Manufacturing Sector in. Nigeria

      1.0 Overview of the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector
      2.0 Contribution, Growth and -Exports of the Manufacturing Sector
      3.0 Production Structure of the Manufacturing Sector
      4.0 Observations for Policy
      5.0 Equations for Modelling

    B. The Petroleum Sector in Nigeria

        1.0 The Contribution of Petroleum to the GDP and Foreign Exchange
        Earnings
        2.0 An “Oil-Based Economy”
        3.0 Supply-Demand-Price Relationship
        4.0 Observations for Policy
        5.0 Equations for Modelling

    Chapter 3: Aggregate Demand

        1.0 Introduction
        2.0 The Behaviour of Consumption
        3.0 The Behaviour of investment
        4.0 Equations for Modelling

    Chapter 4: Labour Market

        1.0 The Nature of Labour Market in Nigeria
        2.0 Modelling the Nigeria Labour Market

    Chapter 5: Federal Fiscal Profile

        1.0 Introduction
        2.0 Revenue and Expenditure Profile of Govemment
        3.0 Fiscal Deficit Surplus Profile of Government
        4.0 Financing of Fiscal Deficit in Nigeria
        5.0 Model of the Fiscal Block

    Chapter 6: The Monetary and Financial Sector

        l.0 Introduction
        2.0 The Conduct of Monetaiy and Fiscal Policy in Nigeria and Macro-economic Performance
        3.0 Analytical Methodology
        4.0 Estimation and Validation

    Chapter 7: The Nigerian Informal Financial Sector

        1.0 Introduction
        2.0 Conceptual Issues
        3.0 Theoretical Issues
        4.0 Informal and Fonnal Fiscal Sectors and the Macro-economic Policy Environment
        5.0 A Model of the Informal Financial Sector in Nigeria
        6.0 Surnrnary of the Discussions

    Chapter 8: The External Sector

        1.0 Introduction
        2.0 The Foreign Exchange Market
        3.0 The External Sector Block, Savings and Trade Gap
        4.0 Import-Demand Function
        5.0 Non-Oil Export Supply in Nigeria
        6.0 Export-Supply Function
        7.0 Determinants of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments
        8.0 Savings and Trade Gap
        9.0 Concluding Remarks

    Part Two: A MODEL OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
    Chapter 9: The Model

    • Components of Agricultural Production
    • Agricultural Production Function
    • Agricultural Output Supply
    • Petroleum Sector Ftmction
    • Aggregate Demand Function
    • Labour Market Models
    • Model of the Fiscal Block
    • Demand for Money Function
    • Model of the Informal Financial Sector in Nigeria
    • The External Sector Block, Savings and Trade Gap
    • Import-Demand Function
    • Non-Oil Export-Supply Function
    • Export-Supply Function
    • Balance of Payments Model
    • A PRIOR! Expectations
    • Savings and Trade

    Part Three: RESULTS OF ESTIMATED EQUATIONS
    Chapter 10: Empirical Results and Analysis

    • Notes
    • Bibliography
    • Production Block
    • Aggregate Demand Block(I)
    • Monetary and Financial Sector Block
    • The Internal Sector Block
    • The Production Block
    • Aggregate Demand Block(II)
    • The Monetary and Financial Sector Block
    • The External Sector Block
    • Forecasting, Policy Simulation and Control

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